<div class="callout">Executive SummaryThis report presents a time-series quantitative analysis of the 2026 Patagonia wildfire, examining the total burned area of 64,468 hectares and its progression using <dfn data-content="Earth observation satellites operated by the European Space Agency (ESA).">Sentinel-2</dfn> satellite imagery and the <dfn data-content="An index that quantifies wildfire damage severity by calculating the difference in the Normalized Burn Ratio between pre- and post-fire satellite imagery.">dNBR</dfn> methodology.It further explains the implications for disaster response and recovery decision-making, with a focus on wildfire spread rates, shifts in the proportion of high-severity burn areas, and the relationship between fire behavior and terrain.</div>On January 5, 2026, a large-scale wildfire broke out in Chubut Province, Argentina, and quickly became known as the “Patagonia Wildfire.” The fire spread rapidly along the forested region east of the Andes Mountains, leaving extensive damage across forests, local communities, and tourist destinations.In disaster response, the most critical priority is obtaining an accurate and objective assessment of total damage, the spatial distribution of high-severity burn areas, and short-term changes in the rate of fire spread. These metrics serve as core indicators for government agencies, reinsurance companies, and forest management authorities. Burned area estimates directly inform budget allocation, recovery prioritization, loss ratio calculations, and the recalibration of risk models.Without a precise time-series understanding of changes in burned area and fire severity, recovery cost estimates and risk assessments may contain significant errors. To reduce such uncertainty, Naraspace conducted a satellite imagery-based quantitative assessment of wildfire damage.Using advanced remote sensing techniques, the analysis focuses on objectively measuring the extent, intensity, and progression of the fire over time. The findings provide data-driven insights that support more informed decision-making in disaster response and long-term recovery planning.<blockquote class="corner-blockquote">2026 Patagonia Wildfire Damage Analysis</blockquote><div class="image-slide"><img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260109-patagonia-rgb-satellite-imagery.png" class="image-slide-preview"><img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260208-patagonia-rgb-satellite-imagery.png" class="image-slide-preview"></div>Satellite-based <dfn data-content="Satellite imagery that combines the red, green, and blue spectral bands to produce a natural-color representation similar to what the human eye perceives.">RGB imagery</dfn> captured on January 9, 2026, shortly after the outbreak, shows widespread gray smoke dispersing across the forested areas east of the Andes Mountains. This observation indicates that large-scale combustion was already actively underway at that time.In contrast, RGB imagery from February 8, 2026, shows little to no visible smoke. This suggests that the wildfire had been largely contained by early February.<blockquote class="blockquote">Changes in Burned Area and Severity</blockquote>The presence or absence of visible smoke alone does not allow for a quantitative assessment of the actual extent or severity of wildfire damage. A more rigorous evaluation requires comparing pre- and post-fire vegetation conditions using the <dfn data-content="An index that quantifies wildfire damage severity by calculating the difference in the Normalized Burn Ratio between pre- and post-fire satellite imagery.">differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR)</dfn> methodology.Through this approach, the total burned area and severity levels were calculated using standardized numerical metrics, ensuring an objective and data-driven impact assessment.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260109-patagonia-wildfire-damage-analysis.png" class="default-image-preview">As of January 9, 2026, approximately four days after ignition on January 5, the total burned area was estimated at 13,307 hectares. This is equivalent to roughly 20 percent of the total land area of Seoul, which spans about 60,500 hectares. Despite being in the early stage of the event, high-severity burn areas already accounted for approximately 25 percent of the total affected area.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260119-patagonia-wildfire-damage-analysis.png" class="default-image-preview">As of January 19, 2026, the total burned area had nearly doubled to 22,968 hectares. High-severity burn areas expanded by approximately threefold, accounting for about 47 percent of the total affected area. This indicates that the wildfire not only expanded spatially but also intensified in severity, with a rapidly increasing share of severely damaged vegetation.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260129-patagonia-wildfire-damage-analysis.png" class="default-image-preview">By January 29, 2026, the total burned area had increased to 48,944 hectares. The fire originating near Los Alerces National Park spread southward, while another outbreak near Esquel advanced eastward. These directional patterns suggest that wind dynamics and topographic conditions accelerated fire spread along specific corridors.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-2026-patagonia-digital-elevation-model-dem.png" class="default-image-preview">An analysis using a<dfn data-content="A gridded dataset that quantifies elevation values of the Earth's surface, enabling the quantitative analysis of terrain features such as ridgelines, slopes, and valleys."> Digital Elevation Model (DEM)</dfn> indicates that the initial ignition point was located on the eastern forested slopes of the Andes Mountains. As a result, the fire spread toward relatively lower elevations and gentler terrain to the east. This finding demonstrates that topographic factors are a critical determinant of wildfire spread pathways.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260208-patagonia-wildfire-damage-analysis.png" class="default-image-preview">As of February 8, 2026, when the wildfire was fully contained, the total burned area reached 64,468 hectares, a scale comparable to the entire land area of Seoul. Of this total, 27,126 hectares were classified as high-severity burn areas. The expansion of high-severity zones raises the risk of secondary impacts, including soil erosion and increased landslide susceptibility. Accordingly, these areas represent a critical reference point for establishing recovery priorities and allocating restoration budgets.<img src="https://earthpaper.s3.ap-northeast-2.amazonaws.com/post/v2/editor/40/en-260109-260208-patagonia-wildfire-affected-area-change.png" class="default-image-preview">The time-series analysis confirms that the 2026 Patagonia wildfire resulted in a total burned area of 64,468 hectares. Notably, the share of high-severity burn areas increased from 25 percent to more than 47 percent. This trend indicates that the wildfire not only expanded in geographic scope but also intensified in impact severity.The findings underscore that the effectiveness of early-stage containment of high-severity zones can have a decisive influence on overall damage scale and long-term recovery costs.<div class="callout">Satellite Imagery Analysis SolutionEven when on-site access is limited during large-scale disasters, satellite data provides the fastest and most objective source of evidence.If you require data to support disaster response and risk management, please contact us through the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://ep.naraspace.com/helpcenter/inquiry?category=contents">Contact Us</a> page.</div>

2026 Patagonia Wildfire Damage Analysis (64,468 ha): Satellite-Based Assessment of Severity and Spread Rate

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